By Stewart M. Powell
HEARST WASHINGTON BUREAU
October 1998
WASHINGTON -- Hispanics, long dismissed as a marginal force by both
political parties, now are being avidly courted by Republicans and
Democrats alike. What the pols have discovered -- much to their amazement
-- is that the number of Hispanics is climbing so rapidly that by 2005 they
will overtake African-Americans as the nation's largest minority, and by
2050 will make up a quarter of the U.S. population.
Former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros sees a political earthquake in the
offing as Hispanics emerge as a swing vote in key states. "We have just
now begun to achieve critical mass with enough votes to make a difference,"
said Cisneros, who was President Clinton's first housing secretary and now
is president of the Spanish- language television network Univision. "It's a
powerful development." He added that the zooming population growth --
coupled with politicians' belief that Hispanics are willing to switch
allegiance depending on candidates and issues -- means that "we have within
our reach the ability to influence" the outcome in 10 states accounting
for 214 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. So both
parties are making an unprecedented effort to woo Hispanic voters.
On the Republican side, House Speaker Newt Gingrich told a national
gathering here of Hispanic leaders: "We want to work with you."
The group had been convened by a longtime civil rights organization, the
nonpartisan League of United Latin American Citizens. Earlier, Gingrich
invited a prominent Mexican-American from Texas, Republican Tony Garza, who
is running for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, to be his guest at
Clinton's State of the Union address. The speaker hired Sandra Hernandez, a
public relations specialist, as his assistant press secretary to handle the
Spanish-language media.
In California, GOP gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren is campaigning in
barrios and targeting TV ads to reach Hispanic voters. He is trying to
counter
the antipathy fostered by outgoing California Gov. Pete Wilson, who swept
to a second term in 1994 by playing to anti-immigrant sentiment. Over the
past four years, Wilson has backed GOP-sponsored ballot initiatives that
sought to bar most public services for undocumented immigrants, halt
affirmative action in state contracting, hiring and public college
admission, and end bilingual education in schools.
In contrast, Texas Republican Gov. George W. Bush is "perceived in every
wayas a friendly Anglo" among Hispanics, according to Valerie Martinez, a
Texas Christian University political science professor. Part of the
perception stems from Bush's refusal to endorse a number of GOP
anti-immigrant measures. This year he repeatedly has campaigned for
re-election in areas with high Hispanic populations -- San Antonio, El Paso
and the Rio Grande Valley -- and is expected to win with strong Hispanic
support. Aides say at least 25 percent of his TV budget is devoted to ads,
some in Spanish and English, targeted to Hispanics.
In New York, Republicans scored a major coup this summer by enlisting
former Democratic Rep. Herman Badillo to their cause. Badillo was the
first Puerto Rican native elected to Congress, and he helped found the
Congressional Hispanic Caucus in 1976. Charging that Democrats "take
their historic constituencies for granted," Badillo has embarked on a
"marathon" campaign around the country to encourage Hispanics to vote for
Republicans.
Another prominent Hispanic, Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio,
also is leading a GOP outreach effort. For months he has been on the
campaign trail seeking to boost Hispanic turnout for Republican candidates
in Texas, Arizona, California, Nevada and New Mexico.
Recognizing the potential of the Hispanic vote, the Republican National
Committee began in March to sponsor a Spanish-language GOP response to
Clinton's weekly radio address each Saturday. The response provides a
national podium to Hispanic politicians, whose speeches go to more than 200
Spanish-language radio stations and networks.
Lorenzo Lopez, co-director of the GOP's New Majority Council, which leads
the party's efforts to reach minorities, said the Spanish-speakers deal
with
issues in Hispanics' neighborhoods "that affect their daily lives -- crime,
drugs and education. . . . Republicans are not changing our message, but we
are tailoring it so that it connects with the community." Finally, the
GOP is appealing to Hispanics by including San Antonio, where Hispanics
make up 56 percent of the population, as one of the sites it is considering
for its 2000 national convention. A decision is expected by January.
On the Democratic side, party strategists see the rising number of
Hispanics
as critical to their comeback in the South and West, where for more than a
decade they have lost House, Senate and gubernatorial races. Democratic
National Chairman Roy Romer, the governor of Colorado, said, "The
growth of the Hispanic population is key to our ascendancy in those states
. . . that are currently seen as Republican strongholds."
Clinton has led his party's courtship of Hispanics, who, except for Cuban-
Americans, have traditionally given at least 60 percent of their votes to
Democrats. Clinton has appointed more Hispanics to high-profile jobs than
any other president, appeared before numerous Hispanic audiences and
advocated policies that they like, such as support for affirmative action,
funds for inner-city schools, greater access to health care and aid for
legal immigrants.
Among the Hispanics Clinton has appointed to key posts are Federico Pe+a,
first as transportation secretary and then energy secretary; Bill
Richardson,
first as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and then as energy secretary
when Pe+a resigned, and Maria Echaveste, first as White House liaison with
interest groups and then as one of two deputy White House chiefs of staff,
the highest White House post ever held by a Hispanic. The president also
named Aida Alvarez to head the Small Business Administration, Mickey Ibarra
as White House intergovernmental affairs director, George Munoz to lead the
Overseas Private Investment Corp. and Louis Caldera as secretary of the
Army.
Following the GOP's lead, the Democratic National Committee in May launched
weekly Spanish- language broadcasts to appeal to Hispanic audiences. The
DNC hired communications expert Evangelina Garcia as deputy press secretary
to deal with Hispanic news outlets. The committee also hired political
consultant Armando Gutierrez, based in Albuquerque, N.M., to bolster
Hispanic voting in 13 House, eight Senate and
six gubernatorial races.
Earlier this year congressional Democrats declared all-out war on GOP
lawmakers over Hispanics. The House Democratic Policy Committee attacked
what it called the "anti-Hispanic Republican Congress" in a report
denouncing alleged GOP efforts to intimidate Hispanic voters, restrict
access to education, undercount minorities in the 2000 census and eliminate
the social safety net for legal immigrants. It also attacked Republicans
who are pressing for English-only legislation, restrictions on immigration
and an end to affirmative action.
Later, House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt notched up the attack,
calling the GOP "the most anti-immigrant, the most anti-Hispanic party that
has ever existed in the history of the country." Yet some Democratic
pollsters worry that the Clinton sex scandal will hurt party candidates by
sharply reducing voter turnout, especially among women and minorities.
Pollster Joseph Goode said, "We're all a little concerned about where this
is leading.
If the Democrats are to have any hope of regaining the House, it's going to
be with the support of Hispanics. Democrats need to get the election back
to issues that are important to Hispanics, just like everyone else --
education and jobs."
Both parties are calculating the importance of Hispanics based on their
skyrocketing growth. Now they make up 25.8 percent of California's
population and 25.5 percent of that in Texas. The percentages are 38.2 in
New Mexico, 18.8 in Arizona, 12.9 in Colorado, 12.3 in New York, 12.2 in
Florida, 9.6 in New Jersey, 7.9 in Illinois and 4.8 in Massachusetts.
Those 10 states hold 214 Electoral College votes. By 2010, Hispanics are
projected to form 42.3 percent of the population in New Mexico, 37.8
percent in California and 32.5 percent in Texas.
Strategists in each party are also taking a second look at voter turnout.
Many politicians have long dismissed Hispanics as a group that doesn't vote
much. But that perception is based on the fact that for decades analysts
have compared the number of Hispanic voters with the entire Hispanic
voting-age population. Using that measure, only 26.7 percent of the
Hispanic voting-age population cast ballots in the 1996 presidential
election, compared with a 54.2 percent total turnout of the nation's
voting-age population that year.
However, the U.S. Census Bureau emphasizes -- and many politicians now
appreciate -- that the traditional gauge of Hispanic political turnout is
skewed. Census officials explain that about 40 percent of the 18.4 million
Hispanics who were 18 or older in 1996 were ineligible to vote because they
were not U.S. citizens. In contrast, almost all of the 178.3 million
Anglos and blacks of voting age in 1996 were U.S. born and eligible to
vote.
To get a more accurate picture of turnout, Hearst Newspapers compared the
number of actual voters with the number of registered voters. Using that
gauge, Hispanic voter participation is much closer to that of the other
groups: 75 percent of registered Hispanic voters cast ballots in 1996,
compared with 82.7 percent of registered Anglo voters and 79.8 percent of
black voters. The turnout of registered Hispanic voters has exceeded the
turnout of registered African- American voters in three presidential and
three midterm elections since 1972.
Along with the parties' greater interest in them, Hispanics are, in turn,
getting more involved in politics. This year a record number are running --
25
for the House, one for the Senate and 43 for statewide offices. Clara
Rodriguez, a sociology professor at Fordham University in New York City,
says, "There is a growing sense among Latinos that we have been invisible
for too long and it is important to stand up and be counted."
Another boost to their political consciousness comes from Hispanics'
growing
awareness of their impact on the 1996 election. They gave Clinton 72
percent of their vote and Republican Bob Dole only 21 percent. GOP nominees
had long counted on at least 25 percent. President Reagan set the
high-water mark with 37 percent of the Hispanic vote in 1984. Exit polls
on Election Day showed that Hispanics helped deliver Arizona to Clinton --
the first time that a Democrat had carried the state in 48 years.
At the same time, Cuban-Americans broke ranks with the GOP in Florida,
splitting their vote between Clinton and Dole. It was only the third time
since 1964 that a Democrat was able to capture the state. Mexican-Americans
tilted heavily toward Clinton in New Mexico, helping him to win the state
for a second time. Hispanics themselves also scored dramatic gains across
the nation. The number elected to state legislatures grew by almost 20
percent to 131 lawmakers, according to the Los Angeles-based National
Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.
Looking ahead to the November election, a number of experts said Hispanic
voters are not locked into one political party. Harry Pachon, head of the
Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Claremont,
Calif., noted that many Hispanics are first-time voters, having just turned
18 or just won their citizenship. "The roots of their partisan attachment
are very shallow," Pachon said. While Republicans' anti- immigrant
rhetoric "pushed Latinos into the arms of the Democrats in 1996, I don't
know if that will be permanent."
Meanwhile, many Hispanics are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Raul
Yzaguirre, head of the National Council of La Raza, which lobbies Congress
and state legislatures on behalf of Hispanics, charges that both parties'
efforts are "essentially public relations," rather than policies targeted
to the everyday lives of Hispanics. Juan Andrade, head of the U.S.
Hispanic Leadership Institute in Chicago, which has helped register 1.5
million new Hispanic voters since 1982, said the parties "need to do more
work" to win Hispanics' attention and loyalty. "The parties and the
politicians haven't sorted out their strategies yet," Andrade said. "For
30 years, one party did not want us and the other party took us for
granted."
{HHS-HEO News e-mail list- Editor, Carl Montoya}